COLA Estimate Tracker

On the CPI-W data published so far, the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment works out to 3.1%. That figure rests on 1 of the 3 months that decide it, so it is arithmetic on incomplete data rather than a prediction — it will move with each remaining monthly CPI-W print, and only becomes final when the Social Security Administration announces it in October 2026.

The Social Security Administration compares the average CPI-W index across July, August and September of this year against the same three-month average from the last year in which a COLA was determined. The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, is the COLA. Nothing else enters the formula — not forecasts, not the headline CPI most news outlets quote, and not the cost of any particular household's spending.

CPI-W is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. It covers a narrower population than the headline CPI-U — roughly 30% of Americans rather than 93% — and weights their spending slightly differently, with more on transport and less on housing. Congress wrote CPI-W into the law that governs the COLA, so it is the measure the Social Security Administration is required to use, whatever other inflation gauges show.

The Social Security Administration announces the COLA in October, traditionally on the day the September CPI report is published — expected Oct 14, 2026 this year. That timing is a convention rather than a commitment: in 2025 the federal government shutdown delayed both the September CPI report and the COLA announcement to 24 October.

The COLA determined in October 2026 applies to benefits payable from January 2027. Supplemental Security Income recipients see it slightly earlier — their increase lands with the payment at the very end of December.

No. If the third-quarter CPI-W average falls below the base period, the law sets the adjustment to zero rather than cutting benefits. That has happened three times since the automatic COLA began in 1975 — the increases payable in 2010, 2011 and 2016 were all zero, which is why those years appear as 0.0% in the history table.

Because it is recomputed from whatever CPI-W months exist. With one month published, the estimate answers "what would the COLA be if the index stayed where it is"; with two, that assumption covers only the remaining month; with all three, the arithmetic is settled and only the official announcement remains. Estimates published this early in the quarter routinely move by several tenths of a percent before October.

Benefits rose 2.8% for 2026, the increase announced by the Social Security Administration in October 2025. The history table above lists every adjustment back to 2012, including the 8.7% increase that followed the 2022 inflation peak — the largest in four decades.

Applied to the average retired-worker benefit of $2,085.98 a month (July 2026), a 3.1% adjustment works out to about $64.67 more a month. That is an illustration using the national average, not a calculation of any individual's benefit — your own figure depends on your earnings record and claiming age, and Medicare Part B premium changes are deducted separately.

The CPI-W index levels come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics data series (CWUR0000SA0) and the COLA history and average benefit figures from the Social Security Administration. Both are United States federal government works in the public domain. The percentages here are arithmetic performed on those published index levels using the statutory formula — the implementation reproduces the 2.8% figure the SSA announced for 2026 exactly from the same data.